China's economy grew at an official 9. 7 per cent in the first quarter of this year as ambitious local authorities went on an investment binge and banks continued to lend to a roaring property sector in spite of Beijing's orders to rein in credit.
The 9. 7 per cent increase in gross domestic product in the first quarter was higher than last year's full-year 9. 1 per cent increase. Some independent economists use a range of proxy indicators to suggest that the official figures understate reality and China is actually growing at 11 or 12 per cent a year.
Although Beijing welcomes rapid growth as a means to resolve its unemployment crisis, official alarm over the unhealthy structure of the economy is growing. Of particular concern is runaway bank lending to questionable infrastructure and industrial projects that are driving up commodity prices and ex- acerbating power shortages.
"Growth of investment in fixed assets remains too high and unreasonable investment in redundant low quality construction projects in certain industries have not been put under control," said Zheng Jingping, spokesman at the National Bureau of Statistics, in an unusually candid admission of policy failure. (来源:www. 2hzz. com)
The main problem, officials said, was that local authorities were using their influence to extract loans from local banks to finance local steel, aluminium, cement, property and infrastructure projects. "The local governments are too powerful. If they want a loan, then local banks can't really refuse," said one official.
In the first two months of the year, investment projects at the local level ballooned by more than 60 per cent over the same period a year earlier. In March, the growth rate moderated somewhat but overall fixed asset investment in the first quarter was up 43 per cent against a year earlier.
In recent days, Beijing has announced several initiatives to try to reassert macro-economic control. The China Banking Regulatory Commission has sent officials to seven provinces to check loans into sizzling sectors like aluminium, steel, cement, property and automobiles, in order to curb overinvestment.
The People's Bank of China (PBoC), the central bank, has raised the minimum level of deposit that banks must keep in reserve to 7. 5 per cent from 7 per cent from April 25, withdrawing around Rmb110bn ($13. 3bn, ? 11bn, £7. 4bn) from the banking sector. Although this amount is modest compared with the Rmb2,990bn in new loans last year, the PBoC is determined to act again if necessary, officials said.
Speculation has grown recently that China may be forced to raise interest rates in order to tame emergent inflation, but officials said that raising rates would not necessarily resolve China's problems. Ambitious local officials who ignore central government orders to rein in investment spending were unlikely to be swayed by interest rates, an official said.
In addition, an interest rate hike may increase pressure on the renminbi to appreciate, thereby drawing further "hot money" inflows into China and adding to domestic money supply and inflation pressures.